Bullion Coin Market Dynamics
Web search interest reported by Google Insights has surged this month but has not come close to reaching the all time high several years ago. What is also interesting to us is that most of the search interest is characterized by “shopping” (25-50%). That’s a lot of buyers. Ebay has taken notice, and has opened a Bullion Store.
From Bloomberg:
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LONDON| SINGAPORE: Gold may decline in London as a rally to a record this week on debt concerns in the US and Europe prompts some investors to sell the metal. Gold climbed to a record $1,628.05 an ounce on July 27 and is up for the first month in three amid deadlock between US President Barack Obama and House Republicans over lifting the debt ceiling. Moody’s Investors Service said it may cut Spain’s credit rating.
Gold held in exchange-traded products rose to an alltime high Thursday. “While I’m still medium- and long-term bullish, I maintain that gold has rallied too far, too fast,” Jim Pogoda, an investor in Summit, New Jersey, and a former precious-metals trader for Mitsubishi International Corp., said in an e-mail .
“I can’t imagine that US will default, or get downgraded , and that the risk premium associated with it in the price at the moment will come out in coming days.” Immediate-delivery gold fell $1.15, or 0.1%, to $1,614.80 an ounce by 11:19 am in London on Friday. Prices are up 0.8% this week and 7.6% this month. Gold for December delivery was up 0.1% at $1,617.30 on the Comex in New York after reaching a record $1,631.20 on July 27.”
One does not need to be a professional trader to understand the current dynamics. The airwaves in America are full of threats of impending doom if America defaults. Its a classic buy the rumor, sell the news, in our opinion.
Shadow Gold Price $9,942 on the way to $100,000
In a Special Report issued by the Erste Group, they make the arguement for the potential of a gold price approaching $100,000/oz..
We view this type of call as a contrarian indicator that, as the bullish calls get more aggressive, the top is more likely in place.
Courtesy of Missives Institute:
“Silver is in a bubble and it will come down towards $15 by February 2012″
Latest availability at APMEX as of 8.15AM Sunday July 3 seems to be 800+ U.S. 1 oz Gold American Eagle – Random Year with special volume pricing and 800+ 2011 1 oz Gold American Eagle in 20 coin tubes from Mint Direct. That’s a bit above from previous supply, but not much – about 5%. For silver one ounce eagles, it looks like they have at least 27 500 coin monster boxes of various years, at least 3,000 random year eagles (up 200%) with special pricing. 4 bags of $1000 worth of 90% silver (down from 14), and 12 bags of $500 worth of 90% silver available as well (up from 10). Also a plentiful supply of Canadian 60% silver bags. Overall, nice availability, just up a bit except for the large silver bags.
Northwest Territorial Mint store has excellent availability across all coins and bullion. While individual coin limits of 200 oz in silver and 3.3 oz in gold bullion make it difficult to determine total supply, they have a nice free silver bullion offer 10 oz bar based on minimum purchase on phone orders only. Their online store lists of 300 products in stock.
We’ve noticed in the last few weeks some amazing prices on bullion coins in single and small lots. Whether its silver bullion or numismatic coins, or some esoteric gold bullion and even eagles at APMEX, the margins on offer average .99 cents over spot for silver bullion with some silver numismatics going for under retail. Gold coin bullion margins have been seen as low as $5 dollars over spot. Truly, these are amazing prices! Regardless of what you think of the direction of the metals, if you are in the market, we have not seen the kind of deals on offer for a long time. We urge you to check out our links to dealers on the right hand side of our webpage and peruse their sales and specials. You may truly find some excellent values. Summer sale or start of a trend – come back in a few weeks to find out. We’ll show some margin trend charts and make some long term projections.
Marketanthropology.com had an interesting observation of the 2008 SLV chart and its similarities to 2011. We are reposting the chart in which the SLV continues to trade in a range between $34 and $38. It would appear that, perhaps the dead cat bounce in silver is finished…
SLV trading - 2008 vs 2011
Trading in Silvercorp Metals, the $1.7 billion silver miner engaged in the acquisition, exploration, development, and operation of silver mineral properties in China and Canada, has collapsed this week both in Toronto and U.S. market trading. This massive loss occurred on no news during a week in which the spot price of silver fluctuated between $36-39, the latter a recovery high from recent collapse to $32. The market watchers are pounding the table, especially in light of the recent report by the Comex that warehouse data showing that, for the first time ever, total registered silver has dropped below 30 million ounces, after experiencing a 5% overnight drop across the board on June 1st. With spot silver currently trading 25% lower from its recent spike to $49, it is legitimate to ask if 30 million ounces is actually too much inventory to support current prices. With stocks such as Silvercorp confirming more than just a little correction, speculators should be a bit more concerned whether in fact this is just a temporary correction.
Latest availability at APMEX as of 1.45PM Sunday May 29 seems to be 800+ U.S. 1 oz Gold American Eagle – Random Year with special volume pricing and 800+ 2011 1 oz Gold American Eagle. That’s a bit above from previous supply, but not much – about 20%. For silver one ounce eagles, it looks like they have at least 29 500 coin monster boxes of 2010, at least 1,000 random year eagles with special pricing. 14 bags of $1000 worth of 90% silver, and 10 bags of $500 worth of 90% silver available as well. Overall, nice availability, just up a bit. Let’s see what happens if we rally this week on a softer dollar.
According to Marketwatch, The Shanghai Gold Exchange said Thursday it will raise margin requirements for silver futures as part of risk-control measures, its third round of increases in less than a month…”Margin requirements will rise to 19% of a contract’s value from 18%, while the daily price limit for the one kilogram silver forward contract will rise to 13% from 10% above or below the previous session’s close”. The new trading requirements are now in effect. The Shanghai Gold Exchange announced previous rounds of increases to margins and price limits on May 5 and April 25.
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